Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up. CU is unch. WU is up. KWU is unch. MWU is unch. US stocks are higher and over 5,500 for first time. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. CBOT will be closed Thursday.
The most important part of the forecast occurs in the second week of the outlook. The first week offers no change to the Midwest, Plains, Delta or southeastern states where periodic rain will continue to support good crop development. The massive ridge of high pressure in the western US this weekend lasts through most of next week. The ridge then becomes more progressive to the east during mid-month pushing the heat very quickly to the east. There is still a relatively good chance that mid-July will be hotter in the central United States.
SU is near 11.15. BOU is near 47.43. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures are higher. Soyoil has rallied on concern about China and Indonesia trade war. India June vegoil imports were highest in 10 months led by sunoil and palmoil. Dec new crop board crush margins jumped to 123 cents. Soyoil share of crush is up to 40 pct. US crushers need to buy soybeans. Will China buy US soybeans before US Presidential election? Some est support now near 11.00 with resistance now near 11.25.
CU is near 4.08. Futures are struggling to rally after Fridays USDA reports. CU was near 4.64 on June 13. Most of US corn crop will start pollinating July 9. Trade trying to deal with strong domestic basis and lack of farmer selling vs higher than expected June 1 stocks with majority on farm. Some est support now near 3.75 with resistance near 4.22. China bought one cargo of Argentina corn for first time in 15 years. S Korea bought corn at 12 month low C&F price but 12 month high in basis.
WU is near 5.86. KWU is near 5.92. MWU is near 6.31. Trade trying to balance tight US SRW supplies vs adequate HRW supplies and higher outlook for HRS crop. US winter wheat farmer remains good seller. Some feel nearby Chicago futures support may be near 5.60. Upside post-harvest target could be 6.50. Russia forecast is hot and dry for spring crops. There is talk of lower French wheat crop and quality but E Europe crop outlook is for higher crop.
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