Global Ag News for July 17.24

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine 2024 corn yield could fall by 30-35%, producers say

Ukraine’s 2024 corn yield could fall by 30-35% because of extreme heat and drought, the county’s major agricultural producers group, the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, said on Tuesday.

“Productive moisture reserves are extremely low. And without precipitation, the situation may be quite critical and there may be a repetition of 2020 and a 30-35% reduction in yields,” the council said in a statement.

Ukrainian state weather forecasters earlier on Tuesday said that the country’s harvest of late crops could decline by 20-30% in central, southern and eastern regions owing to extreme heat.

They said 30% to 50% of the overall area under late crops could be affected by drought.

Forecasters say that in the first 14 days of July maximum temperatures rose to between 33 and 36 degrees Celsius in the western part of Ukraine and up to 41 degrees in southern regions, close to the highest temperatures in the country since records began.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 13 in HRW, down 16 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 18 1/2; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil down 0.53.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 41 in SRW, down 31 1/2 in HRW, down 32 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 57 1/4; Soymeal down $25.50; Soyoil up 1.25.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.2% in SRW, down 13.6% in HRW, down 19.7% in HRS; Corn is down 15.4%; Soybeans down 15.1%; Soymeal down 13.5%; Soyoil down 2.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal up 38; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 108; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 10.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 10 ringgit (+0.25%) at 3954.

 

There were changes in registrations (-78 SRW Wheat, -103 Corn, -220 Soyoil, -40 Soymeal). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 7 Oats; 72 Corn; 55 Soybeans; 1,182 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 16 were: SRW Wheat up 2,609 contracts, HRW Wheat down 644, Corn up 6,485, Soybeans up 2,729, Soymeal up 1,336, Soyoil down 284.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and storms remain possible early this week with drier conditions returning later in the week. Temperatures will trend cooler this week and scattered rain showers may return for the weekend. Conditions are fair for crops, but severe storms have not been favorable as corn starts to silk and soybeans start setting pods.

Central/Southern Plains: Some areas across Kansas and Oklahoma could use more moisture, which may arrive mid-week. As a cold front shifts south later in the week, isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the Southern Plains and temperatures are expected to cool down behind the front. Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the Central and Southern Plains by the end of the week and will persist through the weekend. Scattered showers and storms will linger across these regions this weekend which could reduce the drought across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Texas.

Midwest: Widespread showers and storms remain likely Tuesday with conditions trending drier for most by Thursday as a cold front sags south, and high pressure returns. Cooler temperatures will arrive by the middle of this week and expand across much of the region by Friday. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for developing crops, but southeastern areas could use more rainfall and severe storms are creating swaths of crop damage.

Delta: An active pattern is likely this week with showers favoring northern areas early in the week before shifting south during the second half of the week. The active pattern could lead to some fields of soybeans being too wet as beans continue to set pods. Temperatures are favored to be above normal early this week with a cool down by Thursday or Friday. Cooler temperatures could last into early next week as well.

Canadian Prairies: Warmer conditions last week and scattered showers and storms this past weekend were favorable for developing wheat and canola. Showers this week will be much more isolated with some areas likely remaining mostly dry. Temperatures are also expected to be above normal for western areas this week, which could lead to drought expanding if they missed showers this past weekend.

 

The player sheet for 7/16 had funds: net sellers of 0 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer bought 770,000 metric tons of mostly Russian wheat in an international tender, marking its biggest single purchase since 2022 following a dip in Russian prices. The purchase comprised 50,000 metric tons of Bulgarian wheat and 720,000 metric tons of Russian wheat, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said.
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 115,208 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada, in a regular tender that will close on July 18.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• FEED WHEAT TENDER FAILED: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for up to 175,200 metric tons of animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender.
• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking vegetable oils in an international tender for arrival Sept. 1-15 and/or Sept. 16-30. The deadline for offers is July 18.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is July 17.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 12 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.065m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.712m bbl vs 23.603m a week ago

 

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching 4.51 Million Tns In July Versus 4.10 Million Tns In The Previous Forecast- Anec

• Brazil: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for France are incomplete from the beginning of 2024; figures for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season

 

India June Oilmeals Exports Rise to 335,196 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 335,196 tons in June from 302,280 tons in May, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 159,447 tons from 133,263 tons in May
• Soymeal exports rose to 152,351 tons from 144,706 tons in May
• Castorseed meal exports fell to 21,388 tons from 23,000 tons in May

 

China Scoops Up Brazil Soy as Low Price Drives Bargain Hunting

Buyers booked as many as 75 cargoes — or about 4.5 millions tons — of Brazilian beans in the first two weeks of July, according to sources familiar with the matter, as a weaker currency makes the crops increasingly competitive abroad. The cargoes are mainly for delivery in August and also for next year, the people said, asking not to be named discussing private deals.

These overall volumes are not out of line with the norm for this time of year, but the speed of purchases points to China’s eagerness to take advantage of a softer market. It also stands in contrast to bookings from the US, which have been unusually tepid for the new crop that is due to be collected from September. Benchmark futures in Chicago are trading near a four-year low.

The cargoes are likely to exacerbate a supply glut in China, and may squeeze market share for US suppliers during their peak shipment period.

China’s purchases of Brazilian soy climbed 23% in the first five months of the year, even as overall imports declined and American imports nearly halved. Crushers are also maintaining purchases from South America amid worries that a potential second term for former US President Donald Trump may risk another trade war and catch US soybeans in the crossfire, the people said.

 

Ukraine 2024 corn yield could fall by 30-35%, producers say

Ukraine’s 2024 corn yield could fall by 30-35% because of extreme heat and drought, the county’s major agricultural producers group, the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, said on Tuesday.

“Productive moisture reserves are extremely low. And without precipitation, the situation may be quite critical and there may be a repetition of 2020 and a 30-35% reduction in yields,” the council said in a statement.

Ukrainian state weather forecasters earlier on Tuesday said that the country’s harvest of late crops could decline by 20-30% in central, southern and eastern regions owing to extreme heat.

They said 30% to 50% of the overall area under late crops could be affected by drought.

Forecasters say that in the first 14 days of July maximum temperatures rose to between 33 and 36 degrees Celsius in the western part of Ukraine and up to 41 degrees in southern regions, close to the highest temperatures in the country since records began.

 

Export duty on Russian wheat rises 4.7% as of July 17, barley and corn remain zero – Agriculture Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat rises 4.7% to 1,780.5 rubles per tonne as of July 17 from 1.701.3 rubles per tonne during the previous duty period, the Agriculture Ministry said.

• The duties on barley and corn remain zero.
• Duty rates are based on indicative prices of $233.30 per tonne for wheat against $235.40 per tonne the previous duty period, $176.50 per tonne for barley versus $175.90 per tonne, and $190.90 per tonne for corn against $188.40 per tonne.
• The duties are valid until July 23, inclusive.

 

Cargill Says Canola Plant in Canada Is Half Completed

Cargill Inc., the world’s biggest crop trading company, said construction on its canola processing plant in Canada is 50% complete.

• Operations are set to start in 2025
• The plant in Regina, Saskatchewan, will process 1 million metric tons of canola per year
  • Plant to produce crude canola oil for food and biofuel, and canola meal for animal feed
• Co. purchased 400 acres to connect rail and road infrastructure around the plant
  • Improved logistics will allow Cargill to source canola from other parts of the country to Regina, Saskatchewan

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 3.9%

June placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.61m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• Estimates range from -10.1% to +0.7% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of July 1 seen rising by 1% y/y to 11.36m head
• Marketings seen falling 8.3% y/y

 

 

 

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