Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down. CU is down 1 cent and near 3.92. WU is up. KWU is up. MWU is unch. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
SU is near 10.90 Favorable US Midwest forecast triggered new selling. Rains are forecast across dry US east Midwest from Hurricane Beryl. Lower weekly US soybean exports added to selling. US soybean exports are down 16 pct from last year. USDA raised US crop rating 1 pct to 68 pct G/E. AR 74, IA 76, MO 75, NE 77, IL 66, MN 60. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices ended sharply lower. CFTC est soybean short 141,000, soyoil 61,000 and log 73,000 soymeal. Most look for USDA to increase US 2023/24 soybean carryout due to lower exports.
CU is near 3.92. CU dropped below 4.00 on heavy new selling. Narrow band of rain from Hurricane Beryl will help dry US east Midwest crop. USDA raised US crop rating 1 pct to 68. IA 76, MO 79, NE 80, IL 67, MN 59. US corn exports are up 30 pct vs ly. Dalian corn prices ended sharply lower. Brazil corn futures made new lows. July export are est down 35 oct vs ly. CFTC est corn short near record 336,000. Most look for USDA to reduce US 2023/24 corn carryout slightly. Lower domestic use is offset by higher export.
WU is near 5.11. Black Sea and EU prices were lower. USDA will est Friday US spring wheat crop and full S/D. USDA raised US spring wheat crop rating 3 pct to 75 vs 47 ly. Some est US crop near 1,960 mil bu vs USDA 1,875. US winter wheat harvest is near 63 pct vs 52 ly. Higher US and Canada crops could help offset lower EU and Russia. US wheat exports are up 14 pct vs ly.
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