Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Ag Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

July 10, 2020    follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS   

USDA report day. Grains are mixed.  SU is up 2 cents and near 8.97. CU is up 1 cents and near 3.50. WU is down 1 cent and near 5.23. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Crude is lower on demand concerns. 

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 29 cents; HRW up 19; HRS up 15; Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. 

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 17 yuan, up 10 in Corn, up 15 in Soymeal, down 8 in Soyoil, and down 78 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 18 ringgit at 2,385 (basis September) at midsession on weaker July export expectations. 

The southwestern US Corn Belt, such as Missouri and eastern Kansas, will still likely trend drier in the second week of the outlook; the position of the ridge of high pressure in the second week is likely to favor complexes of thunderstorms to move mostly through northern and eastern production areas of the Corn Belt. 

An unusually cool air mass will drop down through the Northern Plains and into Nebraska and the northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday into Thursday. This will merge with a weather disturbance containing some monsoonal moisture leading to a potential significant rain event from Nebraska through Wisconsin within this timeframe. 

The 11 to 16 day forecast has now turned mixed with the models. The GFS sees close to average rainfall and temps for the Midwest through the period. The European model sees ridging producing limited rainfall and above average temps. 

USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 corn crop near 15,036 mil bu versus 15,995 previous

USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 soybean crop near 4,152 mil bu versus 4,125 previous

USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 wheat crop near 1,848 mil bu versus 1,877 previous

USDA is expected to estimate US 2019/20 corn carryout near 2,277 mil bu versus 2,103 previous

USDA is expected to estimate US 2019/20 soybean carryout near 584 mil bu versus 585 previous

USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 corn carryout near 2,683 mil bu versus 3,323 previous

USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 416 mil bu versus 395 previous

USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 948 mil bu versus 925 previous

USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 corn carryout near 325 mmt versus 337previous

USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 soybean carryout near 96 mmt versus 96 previous

USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 wheat carryout near 316 mmt versus 316 previous

On Thursday Managed funds were net buyers of 7,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net bought 4,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 158,000 Corn; net long 80,000 Soybeans; net short 43,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 2,000 Soyoil.  

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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