Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower on the day and about a dime lower for the week. Weekly exports were disappointing yesterday which combined with the lack of announced sales this week and looming harvest pressure IMO supports the price pullback. Dec-24 corn violated its 50 day MA support, however held above $4.00. Healthy rains of 1-3” will stretch from the TX panhandle across the central Midwest and ECB over the next 5 days. Little to no rain for the SE and Delta along with the northern plains. Corn harvest will begin to wrap up in the deep south with short term delays across the nation’s midsection. EU based agricultural consulting group Coceral lowered their 2024 EU and UK corn production forecast 4.5 mmt to 60.3 mmt. After the close yesterday the BA Grain exchange kept their Argentine corn planting est. at 6.3 mil. HA, down 17% from YA with plantings 7% complete.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans down $.01-$.02, meal was $2-$3 lower while oil was up 35-45. Nov-24 beans also violated its 50 day MA support, however held above $10 setting up a mild recovery into the close. Next support is the September low at $9.95 ¼. Oct-24 oil closed above its 50 day MA for the 1st time in 2 months with next resistance at 43.10. Oct-24 meal held support above its 50 day MA at $313.50 with next resistance at $328.50. Spot board crush margins held steady at $1.50 bu. with bean oil PV improving to 39.9%. There were scattered rains thru the central Midwest the past 24 hours. Beyond this rain event, week 2 of the outlooks show a return to hot and dry conditions particularly for the central and WCB. No change to the SA outlook. Southern Brazil remains well watered while WC areas remain hot/dry with only lite precipitation expected by end of Sept. Better prospects for rain in early Oct. which are desperately needed or risk further delays in soybean plantings. The market was unimpressed with the USDA’s announced sale of 121k mt (4.4 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. VegOil analyst Mielke from Oil World while speaking at a global conference in Mumbai is bullish on global vegetable oil for 2025. He expects Malaysian PO to average $1,100/mt for the first half of 2025, up from $895 this year citing limitations on global production growth combined with increased usage for biofuel production. Barge shipments along the MS river were down 7% from the previous week at 367k tons, however were up 10% YOY. Corn shipments were down 13%, wheat down 21% while beans barge traffic was up 14%.
WHEAT
Prices turned mixed with KC and MGEX both closing within $.01 of unchanged while Chicago was up $.01-$.02. Inside trade for both Chicago and MGEX Dec-24 contracts. Dec-24 KC slipped to a 3 week low pressured by increased rains in the southern plains. KC Dec-24 closed at a $.04 ½ discount to Chicago, a 5 ½ month low. Coceral lowered their 2024 EU/UK wheat production forecast 8.5 mmt to 126 mmt, down 10% from YA. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry cut their 2024/25 winter wheat acres 4.5% to 4.48 mil. HA. The Grain Industry Association of W. Australia cut wheat production for their region 7% from last month to 9.3 mmt while also citing further cut are likely without moisture relief in the next few weeks. S&P Global is forecasting 2024/25 US winter wheat acres at 32.5 mil. down nearly 1 mil. from YA and if realized would be the lowest in 5 years. They are also forecasting Spring wheat production at 563 mil. bu. up 19 mil. from the USDA estimate in August.
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