Written Commentary
CORN
Prices closed $.04-$.08 higher. July-24 was the upside leader as delivery registrations fell 33 contracts to 508. Despite the higher close Dec-24 was not able to penetrate this week’s high at $4.26 ½. Markets added weather premium as a warming trend is expected in week 2 of the outlook. Exports at 26 mil. bu. (14 mil. – 23/24 MY, 12 – 24/25) were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.115 bil. are up 38% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 29%. Shipments are up 26%. Nearly all of the new crop sales were to Mexico. New crop commitments at 139 mil. bu. are a 5 year low. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest has reached 63%. They also kept their production forecast unchanged at 46.5 mmt with an average yield at 6.75 mt per HA, vs. the USDA forecast of 53 mmt and yield of 7.6 mt per HA. The USDA FAS office estimates Chinese corn imports in 2024/25 will reach only 20 mmt, 3 mmt below the official USDA forecast in the June WASDE. CFTC-COT data is delayed until Monday.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was higher across the board with beans up $.08-$.12, meal was up $4-$7 (July up $16) while oil was up 80-100. Aug-24 beans traded to a 3 week high with next resistance is at $11.86 its 100 day MA. The 50 day MA at $357.70 capped the rally in Aug-24 meal. Aug-24 oil traded to a fresh 3 month high. Next resistance is April-24 high of 50.28. Near term US weather forecasts remain non-threatening with much of the Midwest in a normal to below normal temperature pattern over the next week. Heaviest rains are expected in the southern plains as Hurricane Beryl is forecast to reach the TX coast by late this weekend. Remnants from the storm expected to move into the Southern plains early next week. Bean exports at 14 mil. bu. (8 mil. – 2023/24 MY, 6 – 24/25) were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.646 bil. are down 15% from YA in line with the USDA. New crop commitments at only 51 mil. are the lowest in well over a decade. Still no new crop commitments to China. Soybean meal sales at 502k tons, (213k – 23/24 MY, 289k – 24/25) were at the high end of expectations. Old crop commitments are up 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Soybean oil sales at 12k tons were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are up 53% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 19%. Argentine harvest is complete with BAGE leaving production forecast unchanged at 50.5 mmt, in line with USDA’s 50 mmt. Spot board crush margins continue to surge (July-24) up another $.36 today to $2.09 bu. the highest since mid-Nov-23.
WHEAT
Prices were $.10 – $.18 higher across all 3 classes at midday. Strong exports and another reduction in SRW delivery registrations set the stage for today’s rally, likely confirming harvest lows are in. CBOT registrations fell another 198 contracts to 561 while KC remains at 0. Lower production forecasts from France also contributed to the firmer trade. A hot/dry pattern is expected to continue for at least another 7-10 days for central Ukraine eastward into Western Kazakhstan further stressing row crops. Exports at 30 mil. bu. were a MY high. YTD commitments at 254 mil. are up 49% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%. By class YTD commitments vs. YA are HRW up 84%, SRW down 16%, HRS up 63% and white up 94%. The BAGE estimate Argentine plantings have reached 85% and kept production at 18.1 mmt, just above the USDA forecast of 17.5 mmt. So far Sept-24 Chicago has stalled near this week’s high near $5.92. Same with Sept-24 KC near $6.00.
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