Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.05-$.07 lower closing near session lows as spreads weakened a bit. Sept-24 did hold support above its contract low of $3.89 ½. Dec-24 has also held above its recent low at $4.03. Republican VP nominee JD Vance’s speech last night at the RNC didn’t stimulate warm/fuzzy feelings for US/China relations. Exports at 36 mil. bu. (17 mil. – 23/24 MY, 19 – 24/25) were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.154 bil. are up 38% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 34%. Noted buyers were Mexico with 5 mil. of both old and new crop, Japan – 7.5 mil. and Columbia with 4 mil. New crop sales are starting to perk up, however at only 163 mil. bu. still a 5 year low. According to Chinese customs data they imported 920k mt of corn in June, down 50% from June-23. YTD imports at just over 11 mmt are down 8.2% YOY. Favorable weather and growing prospects for record yields for now outweigh the strong USDA demand forecast. Average US yields this year will need to reach nearly 184 bpa in order to match last year’s record production. We’ll need more than a big week of ethanol production to start spooking the speculative traders out from their record short position.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed as spreads weakened a bit following their recent surge. Beans were up $.02-$.03, meal was steady to $2 lower while oil was up 25-35. Aug-24 beans traded a $.60 inverse over Nov-24 for the first time since Dec-23 before backing up. Nov-24 beans traded a new 3 ½ year low before bouncing. Aug-24 oil has been bouncing around its 100 day MA at $.46 lb. Scattered rains dotted the southern Midwest and far ECB in the past 24 hours. Cool, mostly dry conditions for much of the central Midwest and Great lakes region for the next 5 days. Healthy rains are expected across the Delta and SE with scattered rainfall activity in the WCB. Temperatures to remain normal to below for a vast majority of the Midwest over the next 2 weeks. A hot/dry pattern appears to be setting up in the northern plains thru the end of July. Today’s updated drought monitor showed abnormally dry areas in Central IL and IN were eliminated with the heavy rains over the past week. Bean exports at 27 mil. bu. (13 mil. – 23/24 MY, 14 – 24/25) were solid. Old crop commitments at 1.667 bil. are down 14% from YA in line with the USDA. While only 10k new to China. New crop commitments at 71 mil. are still the lowest in over a decade. The USDA did announced the sale of 510k mt (18.6 mil. bu.) of new crop to an unknown buyer that will certainly give a boost next week. Soybean meal sales at 308k tons, (209k – 23/24 MY, 99k – 24/25) were supportive. Old crop commitments are up 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. The USDA also announced the sale of 150k mt of 24/25 meal to an unknown buyer. Soybean oil sales at 18k tons (3k – 23/24, 15k – 24/25) were also supportive. Old crop commitments are up 63% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 46%. Egypt’s GASC reportedly bought 20k mt of sunflower oil at $1,014/mt for September shipment.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed today with Chicago $.03-$.04 lower, KC was steady to $.02 higher while MGEX was the upside leader finishing $.07-$.09 higher. MGEX Sept-24 premium over CGO Sept-24 has surged out to over $.66 a 2 ½ month high as late season heat/dryness in the Northern plains could cut into anticipated record HRS yields. Wheat exports at 21 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD commitments at 284 mil. are up 49% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 17%. By class YTD commitments vs. the USDA forecast HRW up 86% vs. USDA up 79%, SRW down 17% vs. down 30%, HRS up 57% vs. up 11% and white up 89% vs. up 22%. Japan’s Ag. ministry bought just over 115k mt of US and Canadian milling wheat. Trade sources seem to have backed down on the volume of wheat purchased by Algeria. It is now believed to be around 600k mt down from 700-750k mt earlier. The milling wheat was priced between $241-$244/mt CF for Sept. shipment and likely all sourced from the Black Sea region. China imported 1.2 mmt of wheat in June, up 44% from June-23. YTD imports at 9.3 mmt are up 16% YOY.
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