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Source: Future Source
US and world wheat markets soared last week on the back of the WASDE report with production figures slashed further than what was anticipated. Russian and Canadian crop losses have been digested by the market with world Fob wheat prices at their highest since the harvest of 2012. Global demand is now the key area of focus.
French wheat harvest continues, crop ratings remaining unchanged at 74% good/excellent (Strategie Grains), but the trade does not believe this to reflect the current rain damage being recorded. As much as 50% of the French wheat production could be downgraded to feed quality, says Strategie Grains. In this scenario, Paris wheat futures are likely to have even more support. UK wheat harvest is progressing slowly due to weather conditions. In the latest AHDB harvest progress report, it showed that only an estimated 2.5% (as of AUG 13) of the GB winter wheat area had been cut, the slowest start since 2017. Both London and Paris futures have cooled off slightly today after Friday’s excitement. Last trading price for NOV-21 London wheat was down £1.55/t on Friday’s settlement to £193.45/t and last trading price for DEC-21 Paris milling wheat was down €2.25/t on Friday’s settlement to €252.75/t.
Rapeseed prices continue to climb, fuelled on the back of stronger US soyabean export sales. Last week (9-13 Aug), the USDA reported new season sales of 828Kt of soyabeans to China/unknown destinations in 2021/22. The USDA cut 4.2Mmt from its estimate of the Canadian rapeseed crop to 16.0 Mmt, 21% smaller than last month. In the Canadian province of Alberta, the local government estimated the rapeseed yield at just 1.38t/ha this year, a 40% drop on the five year average. Alberta typically produces 29% of the Canadian crop but has been badly affected by the hot, dry weather this season. Paris Rapeseed futures climbed again today, NOV-21 last traded price was up €6.25/t on Friday’s settlement to €573.25/t.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell & Ryan Easterbrook
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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