Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Fed day, Grains are higher. US stocks are lower before US Fed meeting. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US retail sales and industrial production were better than expected.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.18. Lox volume short covering before Fed results. Some still feel SX could be in a choppy 9.55-10.31 range. US domestic soybean basis is lower ahead of harvest. Forecast of Midwest rains could slow harvest. No USDA announcements of new US soybean sales. Key to soybean futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil future were higher after reopening after holiday. CONAB est Brazil 2025 soybean crop at 166.3 mmt vs USDA 169 and 153 ly.
CORN
CZ is near 4.14. Some feel CZ could be in a choppy 3.85-4.20 range. Corn is supported by south America weather. Forecast of Midwest rains could slow harvest. Some are beginning to doubt USDA 183.6 corn yield. Higher US barge freight has pushed US export prices above other origins. Key to corn futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil. CONAB est Brazil 2025 corn crop at 119.8 mmt vs USDA 127 and 122 ly. EU end users are active bidders for Ukraine corn. Dalian corn futures were lower.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.77. KWZ is near 5.81. MWZ is near 6.21. Wheat futures traded lower on increase tech selling. Some feel Managed funds were ready to reestablish wheat shorts. Overnight trade is higher. Key is demand for US wheat and 2024 south hemisphere/Russia and 2025 crop weather. Russia wheat still being offered and lowest origin. Import buying slowed in front of US and ECB rate changes and impact on currencies and energy prices.
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