Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2024
October 8, 2024
CORN
Corn futures ended lower and near 4.40 support. This after testing 4.49 resistance overnight. NWS 6-10 day forecast is for normal rains and above normal temps. EU model suggest next week humidity could be low which could limit rains especially in east. West Midwest continues to see above normal rains especially in Minnesota. Farmers there report too much rain could increase prevent plant acres. Some farmers report IN crops vary and overnight temps in 70’s is beginning to stress especially corn. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 700-1,200 mt vs 1,056 last week. Brazil corn export prices are lowest to Asia.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower and near session lows. SN is back near 11.50 support after testing 11.75 resistance overnight. NWS 6-10 day forecast is for normal rains and above normal temps. EU model suggest next week humidity could be low which could limit rains especially in east. West Midwest continues to see above normal rains especially in Minnesota. Farmers there report too much rain could increase prevent plant acres. Some IN farmers report crops vary and overnight temps in 70’s is beginning to stress crops. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 375-850 mt vs 377 last week. Soymeal sales are estimated near 150-400 mt vs 143 last week.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Talk of increase US winter wheat harvest yields and lower EU, Ukraine and Russia prices is offering resistance to futures. Canada and US spring wheat crops are also above average. South America wheat crops are off to a good start. Australia wheat futures are near 2 month lows. One Russia analyst est wheat crop closer to 82 mmt which reduces chances for crop below 80 mmt Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 200-500 mt vs 224 last week.
Charts provided by QST.
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