Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

May 25, 2018       follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

Grains are mixed to higher. SN is up 5 cents and near 10.40. CN is up 1 cent and near 4.05. WN is up 5 cents and near 5.36. Could be choppy trade today going into the long US Holiday weekend. CBOT grains will be closed Monday. Key to grain price direction will be summer weather and China trade. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 17 cents for SRW, up 18 in the HRW, and up 9 for HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 43 cents; Soymeal up $3.00, and; Soyoil up 60 points. 

For the month, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 42 cents for SRW, up 51 for HRW, Spring up 29; Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans down 7 cents; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil down 155 points (July crushing margins up 7 cents at $1.54, oil-share down 1% at 28%). 

For the week ended May 17th, US All Wheat sales are running 16% behind a year ago with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline on the year. US Corn sales were running unchanged versus a year ago with the USDA forecasting a 3% decline on the year. US Soybean sales were running 5% behind with the USDA forecasting a 5% decline on the year. Soymeal sales 14% ahead of a year ago with a 10% increase forecasted 

Global grain supplies are poised to fall to a three-year low in the 2018/19 season due to a drawdown in stocks coupled with a slight dip in output, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in a monthly report, nudged up its forecast for 2018/19 world grain production by one million tons to 2.089 billion tons, lifted its forecast for global corn output in the 2018/19 season by one mil tons to 1.055 bil tons, increased its expectation for global wheat production by three mil tons to 742 mil tons. However, it trimmed its forecast for global carryover stocks by four mil tons to 556 mil ton, trimmed its expectations for consumption for the 2018/19 season by three mil tons to 2.136 bil tons, nudged up its forecast for global soybean production in 2018/19 by one mil ton to 356 mil ton but reduced its estimate for the prior season by three mil tons to 336 mil. 

Two of the biggest US meat processors say higher grain prices are on the horizon; executives for Hormel Foods and Sanderson Farms expect grain prices to continue moving higher through the second half of 2018, partly because of a cold, wet spring that delayed planting, plus earlier weather mishaps that cut into South American production; that's good news for farmers, who've struggled for years with low crop prices, but ominous for meat companies, where the cost of feed represents the biggest expense in raising poultry and livestock. 

Funds sold 5,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal, 2,000 soyoil and 13,000 corn and bought 1,000 wheat on Thursday. Funds are estimated to be long 109,000 soybeans, long 112,000 soymeal, net short 55,000 soyoil, long 200,000 corn and long 22,000 wheat.

The information and comments contained herein are provided as general commentary of market conditions and are not and should not be interpreted as trading advice or recommendation.  The information and comments contained herein are not and should not be interpreted to be predictive of any future market event or condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and not Archer Daniels Midland Company.  Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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