Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

Nov 12, 2019    follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

Baby it is cold outside in Chicago! I am glad I am not still feeding cows outside. Grains are sharply unchanged. CZ is unchanged and near 3.73. WZ is unchanged and near 5.06. SF is unchanged and near 9.17. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. US stocks are higher. Gold is lower.    

USDA weekly US export inspections and crop condition report will be out today. Lack of new news concerning US and China trade talks and global weather concerns limits the upside in prices. Lack of US farmer selling and feelings US corn and soybean crops could still be lower than USDA estimate offers support. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has snows moving through the northern sections of the region but, the rest of the areas are dry through the week and weekend. The middle of next could have a system for the north with the rest of the Midwest being mainly dry. Temps look to go from below average to moderate/average into the weekend and next week. 

The South American weather forecast has rainfall continuing for most of Brazil over the next 5 days with the 6 to 10 day forecast calling for precip across the north with lesser amounts in the south. The 6 to 10 day forecast for Argentina, with some rainfall in regions, is mainly dry. 

Brazilian farmers as of Nov. 7 had finished planting soybeans on 58% of the area estimated to be sown with the crop in the 2019-2020 growing season. That was slightly ahead of the 57% five-year average for the date and a 12 percentage-point increase from a week earlier. 

China's pork prices fell sharply last week for the first time in 10 months, as reports of fresh disease outbreaks in the northeast led to more hogs being sent for slaughter just as consumers cut back on pricey meat, analysts said. Consumption has declined about 30% since October due to the high prices. About 10% of carcasses, and sometimes as much as 20%, were being returned to slaughterhouses unsold because of high prices. 

Russia's total grain crop for 2019 is expected to be 121.1 million tons, up 0.8 million tons on the previous forecast, the agricultural consultancy SovEcon said. The world's top wheat producer is expected to produce 75.6 million tonnes of wheat in 2019, up 0.2 million tons on the previous forecast. 

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2019/20 season that started on July 1 had reached 9.7 million tons by Nov. 10, official data showed. That was 55% above the volume cleared by Nov. 4 last year. EU 2019/20 maize imports stood at 7.2 mln t, up 18%. 

European Union soybean imports in the 2019/20 season that started on July 1 had reached 4.8 million tons by Nov. 10, official data showed. That was similar to the volume cleared by Nov. 4 last year. EU soymeal imports had reached 6.7 million tons, up 15% versus the same period a year earlier. Palm oil imports stood at 1.9 million tons, down 18% 

On Monday, funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 14,000 Corn; 8,000 Soybeans; 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 139,000 Corn; net long 47,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 40,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 84,000 Soyoil. 

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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