Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

Aug 27, 2019    follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

Grains are mixed to lower.  Soybeans are lower after USDA raised weekly US crop ratings CZ is unchanged and near 3.67. WZ is unchanged and near 4.74. SX is down 8 cents and near 8.58. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are marginally higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast continues with close to average rainfall over the majority of the Midwest continuing the next 10 days. There is some difference in the models for the week with the GFS model wetter. Next week has the models agreeing with rains favoring the north. Temps look to continue to be running average to below average with no cold air threats seen. 

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has below average temps and close to average precip in all of the Midwest. 

U.S. Corn denting was 27% versus 15% a week ago, 59% last year, and 46% average. Corn was rated 57% good to excellent (trade estimate was 57%) versus 56% last week, and 68% a year ago. 

Soybeans setting pods was 79% versus 68% a week ago, 94% last year, and 91% average. Soybeans were rated 55% good to excellent (trade estimate was 54%) versus 53% a week ago, and 66% a year ago. 

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 24% ahead of a year ago (25% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 4% increase on the year. Corn 17% behind a year ago (16% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season. Soybeans 20% behind a year ago (20% last week) with the USDA having a 20% decline forecasted on the year. 

Chinese pork meat imports are projected to sharply rise from 2.1 million tons in 2018 to 3.3 million tons in 2019 and 4.2 million tons in 2020, because of the African swine fever outbreak. 

Beijing's additional 5% tariff on US soybeans not only hurts farmers in the US Midwest, but has the potential to worsen deforestation in the Amazon rainforest. China's tariffs and desire to diversify away from US farmers has spurred an investment surge in Brazil's agribusiness sector, which is focused on expanding the arable land of the Cerrado savanna, where more than half of Brazil's soy is grown. Historically, the expansion of Brazil's arable land has come at the expense of the rainforest and China's rising dependence on Brazil's soy could slow progress in ending deforestation. 

On Monday, funds were net even in SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 Corn; bought 7,000 soybeans; bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 59,000 Corn; net short 75,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 39,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net even Soyoil. 

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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