Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

July 19, 2019      follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

Grains are mixed to higher.  There may be some evening up into the weekend. US Midwest will be hot

and dry the next 2 days. Cooler temps are forecast for next week. SX is up 5 cents and near 9.04. CZ is unchanged and near 4.30. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.08.  Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 26 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 30 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 18 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 29 cents; Soybeans down 29; Soymeal down $7.00, and; Soyoil down 70 points (crushing margins are up 5 cents at $0.97, oil-share is up 1% at 31%). 

Chicago corn futures ticked higher on Friday, but the market was poised for its biggest weekly drop since June 2017 as cooler weather across the U.S. Midwest boosted crop prospects. Wheat edged higher on bargain-buying after finishing lower for the last four sessions, with gains were capped by harvest pressure around the northern hemisphere. 

Last week, grain markets were underpinned by fears that U.S. crops could suffer from prolonged hot and dry weather, but Midwest rains brought some relief on Thursday. Investors in the grains market are awaiting the USDA acreage report on Aug. 12 for price direction. 

U.S. All Wheat sales are running 22% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 32% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year. U.S. Corn sales are running 15% behind a year ago, shipments 7% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline on the year. U.S. Soybean sales are running 16% behind a year ago, shipments 22% behind with the USDA forecasting a 20% decline on the year. 

U.S. ethanol plants are expected to sharply curtail production in the weeks ahead as steep Midwest corn prices and the U.S.-China trade war have led to weak margins and oversupply, industry sources said. Margins to produce ethanol in the Corn Belt have fallen to a four-year seasonal low, while ethanol inventories are at the highest seasonally since at least 2010; 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has a cold front pushing through over the weekend with moderate rainfall and coverage of around 85%. Things dry out Monday and for the remainder of the week----temps cool into the 80’s with the front and remain there through most of next week. 

The Northern U.S. Plains will be looking at mostly below average precip during the 10 day period---temps will be running average to a bit above average during the period.

The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states will see a seasonable pattern of isolated to scattered showers each day during the next two weeks 

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook continues with an average to below average precip and an average temp pattern for the Midwest.

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