Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Commentary by Steve Freed

January 16, 2018

Grains are mixed. SH is up 6 cents and near 9.67. CH is up 1 cent and near 3.47. WH is down 3 cents and near 4.17. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Copper is lower. 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 34 yuan in Soybeans, down 9 in Corn, up 11 in Soymeal, up 4 in Soyoil, and down 30 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 38 ringgit at 2,515, basis April, a two week low on a stronger ringgit and concerns the EU is going to curb palm oil imports. 

The South American weather forecast has limited rainfall through most of the week; limited rainfall is also seen in the 6-10 day period for Buenos Aires and Santa Fe with close to average amounts elsewhere. Close to average rains are seen for most of Brazil over the next 7 to 10 days. Temps are seen average to below in most of South America over the next 5 days then, near average in the 6 to 10 day period. 

Corn futures may remain sideways trade near season lows. USDA report failed to add demand which keeps supply too high. Higher US wheat acres triggered new selling in wheat. Key now will be US 2018 winter wheat weather. Soybeans could be supported by uncertain South America weather. 

U.S. grain storage capacity grew by about 1 percent in 2017, the Department of Agriculture said on Friday, as swelling crop stockpiles and low prices made holding commodities such as corn an attractive bet for farmers and commercial handlers. Early farmer survey suggest 54 pct of US Midwest farmer plan to plant same acres to same crops in 2018 as 2017. 20 pct will plant less corn and more soybean, 8 pct more corn less soybeans, 2 pct plan to plant more sorghum, 2 pct more cotton, 2 pct diversify to vegetables, 5 pct move to livestock and 7 pct other crops. 

Republican U.S. senators are working with some of the world's biggest agricultural merchants to undo a last-minute provision in the tax overhaul that threatens to distort the grains market and starve private firms of corn, soy and wheat supplies. The provision gives farmers a 20 percent tax deduction on payments for sales of crops to farmer-owned cooperatives, but not for sales to private or investor-owned grains handlers. 

Funds bought 11,000 soybeans and 3,000 soymeal and sold 13,000 corn and 10,000 wheat on Friday. Funds are estimated to be short 96,000 soybeans, long 12,000 soymeal, net long 5,000 soyoil, short 237,000 corn and short 135,000 wheat. 

The information and comments contained herein are provided as general commentary of market conditions and are not and should not be interpreted as trading advice or recommendation.  The information and comments contained herein are not and should not be interpreted to be predictive of any future market event or condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and not Archer Daniels Midland Company.  Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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Telephone: + 44 20 7716 8520.