Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.


Tel: +1 312 242 7000
Email: steve.freed@admis.com


AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

January 18, 2019     admis.com       follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

Grains are higher. SH is up 5 cents and near 9.13. Uptick in soybean prices could be due to a dry Brazil weather outlook. CH is up 1 cent and near 3.81. WH is up 3 cents and near 5.20. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. US stocks are higher. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 1 cent for Soft Red Winter, up 2 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 4 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil up 45 points (crushing margins are up around 2 cents at $0.96, oil-share is unchanged at 31%). 

Grains were supported yesterday on talk of Asian interest in US corn and China interest in US soybeans. Higher World wheat prices are also supportive to wheat. Some are watching US cold snap and potential impact on the 2019 US SRW crop. Finally there are rumors that US and China are working on a deal in which China would buy $50 billion dollars of US Ag products over the next 2 years. Soybeans, corn, ethanol, wheat, rice and pork have been rumored as potential products. 

Brazil’s weather forecast has decent rainfall for all of Brazil except the far northeast over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast is average to a bit below average rainfall forecast for all of Brazil except for the far northeast where below average rains are seen. 

Argentina’s weather forecast is mainly dry for the weekend and into the first half of next week. A front is still seen bringing fairly soaking rains to all areas later next week. 

Russia's Agriculture Ministry will regulate domestic grain prices, citing the minister; he did not say when the ministry would start regulating prices; the report also said the ministry does not expect domestic grain prices to rise in the mid-term. 

SH chart flag formation suggest a breakout. Resistance near 9.22. Support 8.89. Similar pattern in CH. Resistance is near 3.84. Support 3.71. Some feel breakout could be to upside. Need a US and China trade deal to push prices higher. WH continues to find support below 5.10. First resistance is near 5.25. Key resistance is near 5.40. 

Funds were net buyers of 10,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal, 4,000 soyoill, 6,000 wheat and 23,000 corn on Thursday. Funds are est to be net short 13,000 soybeans, 53,000 soyoil, short 9,000 soymeal, long 120,000 corn and short 8,000 wheat.  

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. Past results are not indicative of future results or performance. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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