Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

November 12, 2018       follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

Grains are mixed. SF is down 3 cents and near 8.83. CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.70. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.04. US Dollar is higher. Today is Veterans Day. Salute the service. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices were down roughly 17 cents for SRW, down 18 in the HRW, and down 11 for HRS; Corn was down 2; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $4.00, and; Soyoil down 60 points. 

Soybeans found support from firmer US basis. This despite a bearish USDA November report and mostly favorable South America weather. Key to soybean prices may be US and China talks on November 30 in Argentina. 

Corn found resistance from increase in World and China end stocks. This despite the fact USDA lowered US crop end stocks. Corn needs some new export demand to support prices. Talk that US farmers will increase acres in 2019 and a favorable South Americas crop outlook offers resistance. 

Lack of increase demand for US wheat and continued competition from Russia continues to offer resistance to wheat prices. Dry weather in the Black Sea and wet weather in Argentina could support prices. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has two systems impacting the Ohio River Valley with light to moderate snowfall this week. Otherwise, little in the way of precip seen for the region over the next 10 days. Temps will be running below average. 

Brazil weather has close to average rains falling in most of Brazil’s growing regions over the next 10 days.

Argentine weather continues with moderate to good rainfall through tomorrow with things quieting down the rest of the week. More rains return Friday/Saturday favoring La Pampa and Buenos Aires. The rest of the weekend and early next week look dry. 

Funds bought 3,000 soybeans and sold 2,000 soymeal, 5,000 soyoil, 10,000 corn and 6,000 wheat on Friday. Funds are estimated to be net short 51,000 soybeans, 63,000 soyoil, long 9,000 soymeal, long 20,000 corn and short 52,000 wheat.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. Past results are not indicative of future results or performance. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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