Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

July 17, 2018       follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

Grains are higher. SU is up 4 cents and near 8.39.  CU is up 3 cents and near 3.45. WU is up 5 cents and near 4.94. Soybean failed to make new low close on Monday. Could have triggered some short covering. Corn also bounced off contract lows. Some feel lower US crop rating might be helping. Wheat is wheat. US Dollar is lower. 

There is some talk that US and China may be talking about trade issues. New $200 bil dollar tariff due in early September. There may be dialog to resolve issue before then versus earlier talk of not talking until after the midterm election. POTUS did not help his negotiating position at recent summit. Some also feel US soybean export prices are 23 pct below Brazil and have almost priced in current tariffs. US soybean crush and export demand has been record since March. July also looks record high. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no major changes as above average rains look to fall with temps running average to below average for the next 10 days. Things look to be fairly quiet the first half of next week. The 11 to 16 day forecast has average temps and close to average precip for the Midwest; limited rains are seen in the Plains due to ridging with the southern Plains seeing above average temps, the northern Plains average temps. 

Yesterday’s weekly export inspections had U.S. wheat exports running 44% behind a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting an 8% increase, corn 5% behind (up 5%), and soybeans 4% behind (a 4% decline forecasted). 

US Spring Wheat conditions were 80% good to excellent vs 80% last week and 34% a year ago. US Winter Wheat harvest is 74% complete vs 63% last week and 71% average. U. Corn conditions were 72% good to excellent vs 75% last week and 64% a year ago. US Soybean conditions were 69% good to excellent vs 71% last week and 61% a year ago. 

Some feel trade is now trading a US 2018 corn yield near 178-181 and soybean 50-51. Some crop scouts feel quick maturing this years may not get the corn yields the market is trading. 

Funds bought 6,000 soybeans, 6,000 soymeal and 6,000 corn and sold 3,000 soyoil and 5,000 wheat on Monday. Funds are estimated to be short 71,000 soybeans, long 50,000 soymeal, short 98,000 soyoil, short 116,000 corn and net even wheat.

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