Steve Freed

VP of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services

Overseeing the analysis of all market information and trading strategies for over 1100 brokers. He creates daily short and long-term market outlooks, monthly grain PowerPoint presentation updates, daily market outlook video and an electronic statistical manual identifying changes in world supply and demand conditions. Steve’s market opinion is often quoted in newspapers and business journals around the world, and he is regularly a featured speaker at seminars and workshops.

Born and raised on a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Steve received a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture from Illinois State University. His career began as a crop analyst, then as a grain analyst creating trade recommendations based on international and domestic crop conditions. Before joining ADMIS in 1992, he was with Continental Grain Company and later held the position of Vice President of Futures Research at Dean Witter Reynolds. While there, he sharpened his ability to create trade recommendations based on crop conditions, seasonal trends and changes in cash inputs.

Long recognized as an industry expert, today Steve is one of the most respected and followed grain analysts in the nation.

Tel: +1 312 242 7000

AM Futures Commentary by Steve Freed

March 22, 2019       follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS

March Madness, day 2.  Grains are mixed. SK is unchanged and near 9.10. CK is up 3 cents and near 3.79. WK is up 3 cents and near 4.70. US Dollar is higher. Crude and most commodities are lower. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 5 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 6 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 15 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 6 cents; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $5.00, and; Soyoil down 40 points (crushing margins are up 4 cents at $1.00, oil-share is down 1% at 31%). 

Numerous stories/rumors of China looking to buy US corn. Buying US pork and US trying to increase the amount of US good China will need to buy under a new trade agreement. US trade members will visit China next week. 

For the week ended March 14th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 3% ahead of a year ago, shipments 4% behind with the USDA forecasting a 7% increase on the year. U.S. Corn sales are running 7% behind a year ago, shipments 29% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 3% decrease on the year. U.S. Soybean sales are running 17% behind a year ago, shipments 30% behind with the USDA forecasting a 12% decline on the year 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast sees good rains moving through the Plains this weekend and then head into the central Midwest with light to moderate rainfall Sunday and into the early part of next week Things will be dry the middle of next week until another system move through the Plains and Midwest the end of next week. Temps will be turning near average through the first half of next week before going to below average the end of next week. 

The U.S. Delta/Southeast weather forecast will see little to no rain through Saturday. Rains return and will be light to moderate through much of the Delta and the Southeast Saturday night into Monday. Several days of dry weather will follow in most areas with the next chance of precipitation next weekend. 

Brazil’s weather forecast sees rainfall mostly favoring the northern growing areas over the next 5 to 10 day period. Things look mainly dry in the southern regions. Argentina’s weather forecast sees a continued dry pattern for the next 10 days across the growing areas with some rain chances in the far north late next week. 

On Thursday, funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 15,000 Corn; bought 3,000 contracts of Soybeans and sold 3,000 lots of Soyoil, and bought 3,000 Soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net short 62,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 224,000 Corn; net short 81,000 contracts of Soybeans; short 28,000 lots of Soymeal, and net long 6,000 Soyoil. 

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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