Alan Bush

ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Alan has been a commodity analyst since 1976, focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of precious metals, stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets.  He has authored several articles for Futures magazine and Stocks Futures and Options magazine.  Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled “Principles of Technical Analysis.”  He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN.  In addition, he has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports. Alan is currently the Senior Financial Economist with ADM Investor Services, Inc.


Tel: + 1 312 242 7911
Email: alan.bush@admis.com


Commentary by Alan Bush | follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS   June 21, 2018

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures were higher in the overnight trade on reports that China is quietly approaching the U.S. to de-escalate the trade war. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 futures advanced to new historical highs. However, prices fell later on news of a more confrontational tone between Italy and the European Union. 

The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits declined for the fourth consecutive week. Initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to a 218,000 in the week ended June 16, when analysts expected 220,000 new claims last week.    

The June Philadelphia Federal Reserve business index was 19.9. The median estimate called for the index to be 28.5.

The 9:00 central time May leading indicators report is anticipated to be up .3%.

Although the global trade situation appears to be getting worse, we are seeing less and less negative reaction in the financial markets to bearish trade news.

CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar hit a new 11 month high in the overnight trade, although it is lower now.

The British pound fell to a seven month low in the overnight trade ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting.

However, the pound quickly reversed and is higher after the BoE’s chief economist unexpectedly backed a rate hike. The central bank of the U.K. voted to keep rates unchanged at .5% at today’s meeting, as expected.

This now puts the possibility of a rate increase at the of BoE’s August policy meeting back in play.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
There was some support for futures when the weaker than expected Philadelphia Federal Reserve June business index was reported.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the Fed’s September 26 meeting is 80%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

Although geopolitical events will inevitably develop from time to time, which will likely produce short periods of flight to quality buying, the main trend for futures is lower.

The information and comments contained herein are provided as general commentary of market conditions and are not and should not be interpreted as trading advice or recommendation.  The information and comments contained herein are not and should not be interpreted to be predictive of any future market event or condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and not Archer Daniels Midland Company.  Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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