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Alan has been a commodity analyst since 1976, focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of precious metals, stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Futures magazine and Stocks Futures and Options magazine. Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports. Alan is currently the Senior Financial Economist with ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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Stock index futures are higher, as they continue to look beyond geopolitical risks, including the ongoing global trade issues and focus more on what is likely to be the strongest earnings season in seven years.
S&P 500 and Dow futures are now higher on the year.
While a variety of geopolitical worries remain, longer term, traders will probably gradually shift their focus of attention more toward corporate earnings and the still accommodative global interest rate environment. CURRENCY FUTURES The euro currency is higher after the euro zone consumer price index for March was reported up 1.0% from February and up 1.3% from last year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.
The British pound is lower on news that the U.K. inflation rate slowed to the lowest level in a year in March, which casts doubt on imminent rate increases from the Bank of England.
The consumer price inflation in the U.K. slowed to 2.5% last month, which compares to the consensus estimate of 2.7%. INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES The Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” on the economy will be released at 1:00. This book is produced approximately two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The next Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for May 2. Financial futures markets are predicting there is only a 2% chance that the FOMC will hike rates at that meeting.
However, the probability of a fed funds rate hike from the FOMC at the June 13 meeting is almost 100%, which compares to 95% yesterday.
Federal Reserve speakers today are New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley at 2:15 and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Governor Randal Quarles at 3:15.
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